Overcoming obstacles to effective scenario planning | McKinsey & Company

Overcoming obstacles to effective scenario planning | McKinsey & Company

By Fouad Bendris

When scenario planning has worked well, it has proved enormously useful to a wide range of organizations as a tool for making decisions under uncertainty. First popularized by Shell in the early 1970s, the approach should be a natural complement to other ways of developing strategy—especially when executives are as concerned about geopolitical dynamics as many are today. It would probably be more widely used if it hadn’t been such a disappointment to many executives. In fact, 40 percent of those we surveyed in 2013 described it as having little effectiveness !

Fouad Bendris’s insight:
Beware giving too much weight to unlikely events: Probability neglectCounter assumptions that the future will look just like the past: Stability biasCombat overconfidence and excessive optimism …

Source:: Strategy & Governance

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